By 
SP Angel . Morning View . Monday 19 10 20
Gold picks up on dovish central banks comments and stimulus hopes
BlueRock Diamonds (LON:BRD) 56p, Mkt cap GBP5.1m – 2,900cts of diamonds sold for $300/ct
Europa Metals Limited (LON:EUZ) 11.25p, Mkt Cap GBP1.2m – Grant awarded to progress the Toral zinc, lead, silver project in Spain
Orosur Mining* (LON:OMI) 42.5p, Mkt Cap GBP58.5m – FY Q1 2021 Results
Serabi Gold* (LON:SRB) – 104.5p, Mkt Cap GBP60.4m – Expansion of Sao Chico exploration area
Shanta Gold (LON:SHG) 19p, Mkt Cap GBP156m – FY20 guidance reiterated, hedge free status by Jan/21
SolGold* (LON:SOLG) 38p, Mkt Cap GBP779m – Progress report on second hole at Porvenir
Talga Resources* (ASX:TLG) – A$0.90, Mkt cap GBP239m – Talga appoint new Group COO and European CEO to be based in the UK and Sweden
China passes ‘Export control’ law threatening to restrict REEs and other critical raw materials to countries and companies it does not like
The new legislation, passed on Saturday, enables the Chinese government to restrict exports to foreign companies and nations it chooses to punish (NikkeiAsia).
In reality China has long been using access to REEs and other materials to persuade companies to set up manufacturing in China
But, the passing of official legislation to ban the export of goods and materials marks an escalation of the strategy to control critical commodity markets and gain the upper hand on Western manufacturing.
The legislation also apples to advanced technologies required by manufacturers such as LEDs where China dominates global supply.
China has previously sought to restrict REE supply to Japan and now appears to be looking to punish the West for its restrictions on Huawei.
China is likely to claim the legislation is similar to the US Department of Commerce’s Entity List.
“China may take countermeasures against any country or region that abuses export-control measures and poses a threat to China’s national security and interests, according to the law,” the official Xinhua News Agency.
The legislation is effective from 1st December.
“Chinese exporters will be barred from dealing with companies on the entity list. But they will be able to request exemptions under certain conditions, according to the law.
The new legislation enable Chinese leaders so much power and control over critical exports increasing the risk of significant corruption and interference in global supply chains.
The act could therefore have a substantial disruptive effect on global trade and presents a significant risk to recovery of the global economy in our view.
Dow Jones Industrials +0.39% at 28,606
Nikkei 225 +1.11% at 23,671
HK Hang Seng +0.81% at 24,585
Shanghai Composite -0.71% at 3,313
Economics
US – Nancy Pelosi says she was “hopeful” that a stimulus deal could be agreed before November’s presidential elections while adding that it must be approved in the next 48 hours to pass in time.
COVID-19: Pfizer may apply for US authorisation of the COVID-19 vaccine it is developing in late November suggesting it could be available for use by the end of the year, according to Reuters.
“So let me be clear, assuming positive data, Pfizer will apply for Emergency Authorization Use in the U.S. soon after the safety milestone is achieved in the third week of November,” Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla said.
The vaccine may be confirmed if it is effective as soon as this month, although, the Company will wait for safety data from a 44,000-person clinical trial that would be available only next month.
Central bankers warn of virus resurgence risks highlighting that risks to the outlook remained to the downside arguing for a continuing stimulus required speaking at an online seminar hosted by the Group 30.
“The recovery in the euro area remains uncertain, uneven and incomplete,” Lagarde said.
“Japan is likely to follow an improving trend… however, this outlook is highly uncertain… if growth expectations drop and the financial system becomes unstable, the economy could fall into a full-fledged recession,” BOJ Governor Kuroda commented.
“To borrow a phrase from sports, I’m afraid the hard yards in are still to come,” BOE Governor Bailey highlighted.
China – The economy gained back losses recorded in H1/20 posting a 0.7%YTD growth, although, Q3 GDP came in weaker than expected at 4.9%.
Industrial sector continued to lead the recovery, although an accelerating growth in retail sales as well as a strong increase in imports indicate improving consumer demand.
Retail sales climbed 3.3%yoy in September with the YTD drop narrowing to 7.2% from -8.6% in eight months to August.
Investments recorded a 0.8% increase YTD as the government sector (+4.0%YTD) compensated for continuing declines in the private sector (-1.5%YTD).
GDP (%yoy): 4.9 in Q3 v 3.2 in Q2 and 5.5 est.
Industrial Production (%yoy): 6.9 v 5.6 in August and 5.8 est.
Retail Sales (%yoy): 3.3 v 0.5 in August and 1.6 est.
FAI (%YTD): 0.8 v -0.3 in August and 0.9 est.
Foreign direct investment (ex rural) 5.2% YTD yoy in September vs 2.6% at end August
Japan – Trade contracted at a slower pace in September suggesting that the pandemic’s hit on global trade may be easing, Bloomberg reports.
In particular, exports to China jumped the most in more than two and a half years while car shipments to the US fuelled the first gain in exports in the sector in over a year.
Nevertheless, exports underperformed estimates for a lower drop in September.
Exports (%yoy): -4.9 v -14.8 in August and -2.4 est.
Imports (%yoy): -17.2 v -20.8 in August and -21.4 est.
EU auto registrations rose 3.1% yoy in September vs 18.9% in August
UK – Property asking prices climbed to a record in October on the back of a temporary reduction in a stamp duty, low interest rates and pent up demand.
Rightmove advertised prices increased 5.5%yoy, the most in over four years, hitting GBP323,530.
Sales were up 70% from the same month a year ago.
Rightmove expects annual price growth to peak at around 7% by December.
Health chief recommends Pub curfew should start at 6:00pm or earlier
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Singapore – Dyson sells $74m(GBP42m) penthouse in Singapore for $62m (GBP35m)
We expect to see further losses in high-end city property to come. Not sure what Dyson will hoover up next!
Currencies
US$1.1713/eur vs 1.1708/eur last week. Yen 105.47/$ vs 105.32/$. SAr 16.489/$ vs 16.594/$. $1.296/gbp vs $1.291/gbp. 0.710/aud vs 0.709/aud. CNY 6.699/$ vs 6.713/$.
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,909/oz vs US$1,906/oz last week
Gold ETFs 111.0moz vs US$111.2moz last week
Platinum US$872/oz vs US$866/oz last week
Palladium US$2,359/oz vs US$2,360/oz last week
Silver US$24.60/oz vs US$24.27/oz last week
Base metals:
Copper US$ 6,739/t vs US$6,779/t last week
Aluminium US$ 1,866/t vs US$1,858/t last week
Nickel US$ 15,670/t vs US$15,545/t last week
Zinc US$ 2,485/t vs US$2,433/t last week
Lead US$ 1,757/t vs US$1,781/t last week
Tin US$ 18,410/t vs US$18,340/t last week
Energy:
Oil US$43.0/bbl vs US$42.7/bbl last week
Natural Gas US$2.677/mmbtu vs US$2.801/mmbtu last week
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$115.0/t vs US$114.2/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$562.1/t vs US$561.0/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$59.5/t vs US$59.1/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$137.5/t vs US$137.5/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$33,305/t vs US$33,305/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$48,060/t vs US$47,964/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$5,224/t vs US$5,214/t
Ferro Vanadium 80% FOB (China) US$29.0/kg vs US$29.3/kg
Antimony Trioxide 99.5% EU (China) US$5.2/kg vs US$5.2/kg
Tungsten APT European US$212-220/mtu vs US$212-220/mtu
Graphite flake 94% C, -100 mesh, fob China US$430/t vs US$430/t
Graphite spherical 99.95% C, 15 microns, fob China US$2,275/t vs US$2,275/t
Battery News
China crude steel output hits record daily high in September
Daily crude steel output hit a record high last month, rising 0.9% from August to 3.09mt per day- the highest figure since this type of record began in 2014.
Production dipped 2.4% from August which has an extra day, to 92.56mt- up 11.8% from September last year according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
China’s steel output has been running at high levels since May, fuelling a booming infrastructure sector amid huge levels of government stimulus (Reuters).
Chinese firms commit to $35bn nickel investment in Indonesia by 2033
Indonesia expects to see investment in nickel processing to double to $35bn by 2033, as Chinese firms seek to expand their businesses in the country.
A select group of Chinese companies currently have around $16bn invested in Indonesia and have made a commitment to increase that to $20.9bn by 2024 and $35bn by 2033.
The commitment was made to Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Maritime and Investment Affairs during his visit to Yunnan province last week (Hellenic Shippings News).
LME CEO – Prepare to LME ring to be closed for further six months
The LME open-outcry trading ring is not expected to reopen until aftef the winter unless there is a coronavirus breakthrough, the exchange’s CEO Matthew Chamberlain said this morning.
Chaimberlain said the market must prepare for a prolonged absence, after the ring originally closed on the 23rd of March, moving the LME to electronic price discovery.
Writebus to use Skeleton’s ultracapacitators to power busses.
Writebus is cooperating with Skeleton Technologies to give them the first opportunity to commercialise their latest ultracapacitors.
Skeleton’s ultracapacitors facilitate the hydrogen economy as fuel cells cannot recuperate the braking energy and reuse it for acceleration, they need efficient energy storage devices to improve system efficiency and total cost of ownership.
The combination of ultracapacitors and fuel cells will speed up the market adoption of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
The energy density is twice as high in Skeleton’s newest material technology innovation, this makes them a perfect addition to hydrogen fuel cells in emissions free transportation.
Writebus predicts that they could make 1000 busses in the next 5 years.
The mix of fuel cell vehicles with ultracapacitors reduces the stress on fuel cells and benefits the vehicles’ fuel economy, allowing them to function more efficiently and increase the range of the system. The first pilot testing should be done by 2021.
South Korea eases battery recycling regulations (Korean Herald)
South Korea relaxed regulations on Monday to allow for the environmentally friendly utilization of used batteries from EVs.
The move opens up opportunities for companies to investigate methods of utilizing EV batteries. The Korean Herald reports Hyundai and LG Chem will do just that looking to building storage containers connected to solar facilities and production of ESS products respectively.
The Korea Energy Economics Institute estimates there could be 80,000 scrapped EV batteries by 2029.
Test results show suggest 2m mile battery possible (Electrek)
Tesla researcher and li-ion pioneer Jeff Dahn updated test results from his research show li-ion batteries capable of 15,000 cycles or in other words a life of over 2 million miles.
Jeff Dahn and his laboratory are the same people who last year released a paper suggesting li-ion technology would produce batteries that could last 1 million in EVs.
The team has continued testing those li-ion batteries, in some cases over 3yrs and 10,000 cycles, finding the batteries performing very well over 15,000 cycles at different depths of discharge.
The batteries showed little capacity degradation when discharged between 25-50%, the most common way electric cars are used by consumers.
Jeff Dahn suggests batteries of these lifetimes could be useful in V2G storage, 2nd use applications when the car dies and applications such as ferries and hybrid aircraft.
New tough UK government regulations for vehicle emissions
The Department of Transport (DfT) has tabled new emissions regulations for manufacturers to abide by from Jan 1 2021.
Manufacturers are set to receive more tailored emissions targets based upon the mass of their fleets, those with heavier fleets will receives targets above the EU standards and those with lighter fleets targets below the EU standards.
Manufacturers will have to reduce emissions 15% for cars and vans by 2025 before reducing emissions by 37.5% for cars and 31% for vans by 2030. These reductions are set against a 2021 baseline.
Those manufacturers that miss their targets will be fined GBP86 for each g/km above target multiplied by the number of vehicles registered in the year.
Following the transition period manufacturers will not be able to meet UK targets using EU27 sales.
Company News
BlueRock Diamonds (LON:BRD) 60p, Mkt cap GBP5.45p – 2,900cts of diamonds sold for $300/ct
BlueRock Diamonds reports the sale of 2,900cts of diamonds for US$300/ct.
The sale brings in $870,165 and highlights ongoing good demand for BlueRock’s gem-quality diamonds in South Africa.
This compares with the last sale of 3,805cts of diamonds from Kareevlei in South Africa fetched $330/ct
The company also recovered a 9.7ct diamond in September worth an estimated $75,000
BlueRock has also made arrangements to sell diamonds in Antwerp through Bonas-Couzyn,and will use the Delgatto Diamond Finance Fund, the largest non-bank lender to the diamond and jewellery industry, to provide pre-sales finance.
This should realise better, international, prices for Kareevlei’s diamonds.
Last year BlueRock sold diamonds from the Kareevlei mine for $415/ct before the impact of COVID-19.
We expect the company to realise prices much closer to this in future sales through Antwerp.
The Kareevlei diamond mine is now working very much better thanks to the operational improvements put in place by Mike Houston and Gus Simbanegavi.
The recent Q3 report showed a substantial increase in the tonnage of kimberlite sorted and an increase in the recovered grade to 4.51cpht
This raised diamond production by +40% to 5,577cts vs 3,973cts a year earlier.
We expect the mined tonnage of kimberlite to continue to rise through next year.
We also expect recovered grades to rise as improvement to the diamond recovery plant should better enable the recovery of more of the diamonds in the kimberlite.
Conclusion: The BlueRock team are busy working on further measures to raise production and recovered grades. We expect to see BlueRock report substantially improved results going forward as the new equipment and processes perform.
*SP Angel act as nomad and broker to BlueRock Diamonds
Europa Metals Limited (LON:EUZ) 11.25p, Mkt Cap GBP1.2m – Grant awarded to progress the Toral zinc, lead, silver project in Spain
Europa Metals reports that Spain’s Centre for the Development of Industrial Technology (CDTI) has awarded “an interest-free loan by way of a grant of EUR466,801.50 … for use towards research and development (“R&D”) at the Company’s wholly owned Toral lead, zinc and silver project”.
“The Grant is categorised as a partly refundable loan (with a nil per cent. interest rate) with the funds received to be allocated towards the development of R&D technologies relating to the recording and correction of drillhole deviation at the Toral Project. Application for the Grant was made further to ongoing work by Europa Metals and the AIR Institute, linked to the Salamanca University, and drilling contractors Sondeos y Perforaciones Industriales de Bierzo SA (“SPI”).”.
The company confirms that it will be drawing the grant in three tranches with an initial EUR163,380 to be drawn “imminently” and the remaining two over the next 18 months.
“Europa Metals anticipates that the Grant will enable the Company to apply for reductions in taxes payable relating mainly to labour costs and is satisfied that the terms of the Grant will not prevent the Company from participating in other grant application processes save where there is a specific technological overlap”. Seventy percent of the grant will be repayable.
CEO, Laurence Read, said that “This interest free loan is a huge testament to the operational work performed at the Toral Project and our team’s ability to establish innovative partnerships with local contractors and leading higher education establishments”. Mr. Read confirmed that the company “is pursuing a number of grant initiatives and I am pleased that the first successful application stems from the Castilla y Leon itself.”.
Orosur Mining* (LON:OMI) 42.5p, Mkt Cap GBP58.5m – FY Q1 2021 Results
Orosur has published its audited results for the quarter ended 31st of August 2020, whilst also providing a summary of its operations in Colombia and Uruguay.
Orosur reported a total comprehensive loss of $1.39m vs a loss of $410k over the same period last year.
Corporate and administrative expenses fell to $253k vs $362k in FYQ1 2021.
Cash and cash equivalents fell ($580k) over the period to $356k vs a fall of ($98k) to $548k last year.
The quarter saw Orosur’s wholly owned subsidiary, Loryser, focus on implementing the creditors agreement and the sale of its Uruguayan assets, whilst also focusing on the reclamation and remediation of the tailings dam.
Orosur sold its mining and exploration permits in the San Gregorio Project area of Uruguay to Kiwanda Group for $550k, of which $250k was received on completion and a further $300k is payable on the 1st of August.
Orosur’s focus over the quarter was advancing the company’s Anza project in Colombia, which has Newmont and Agnico as strategic partners.
Newmont entered a JV with Agnico whereby the two companies will jointly assume and advance Newmont’s prior rights and obligations on a 50:50 basis- with Agnico as the operator and under the name Monte Aguilla.
Newmont, and its new partner in the Anza project, Agnico, will need to spend $4 million on the Anza project between now and September 2021,to maintain its earn-in rights in the project, which should lead to an acceleration in the exploration and appraisal of the project in the coming year.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining
Serabi Gold* (LON:SRB) – 104.5p, Mkt Cap GBP60.4m – Expansion of Sao Chico exploration area
Serabi Gold reports that it has acquired an additional 4,999 hectares of exploration licences to the west of its Sao Chico deposit.
The company confirms that the new, Sao Domingos area “is contiguous and west of its existing exploration interests and Company’s Sao Chico deposit, and most significantly lies along strike from Sao Chico. The tenement hosts multiple active and abandoned artisanal workings which have produced significant levels of gold”.
CEO, Mike Hodgson explained that the area had been of interest to Serabi Gold for some time and that “The Sao Domingo tenement hosts a number of historic artisanal workings, with many examples of exceptionally high-grade ore being mined. Two stand out prospects, Toucano and Atacadao, typify this and are of particular interest. Toucano is an artisanal open pit which is reported to have produced exceptional grades, mining a 20 metre wide mineralised zone to depths of 40 metres and extending over a strike length of one kilometre … [while] … At Atacadao, a 11 hole drill programme was completed in 2006, testing the mineralisation under the artisanal workings. The results of this modest programme intersected high grade gold mineralization ranging from 3 to 60g/t gold at an average true width of between 0.2 to 0.8 metres The mineralogy appears very comparable to what we have found at Palito and Sao Chico”.
Serabi Gold is acquiring the additional licence area for US$100,000 in cash plus a 2% NSR on future gold produced from the area. “Upon completion of a JORC or NI 43-101 compliant technical report, Serabi can elect to purchase half the royalty (1%) for the greater of US$10 per gold ounce (for resources identified within this licence area) or US$500,000”.
Conclusion: The expansion of the exploration area at Sao Chico into an area of known artisanal gold working seems a logical and relatively low-risk addition to the exploration potential of Sao Chico which is itself in an area of artisanal gold workings. We await results with interest.
*An SP Angel analyst has visited the Serabi’s gold mining operations in Brazil
Shanta Gold (LON:SHG) 19p, Mkt Cap GBP156m – FY20 guidance reiterated, hedge free status by Jan/21
Q3 production totalled 20.0koz (Q2/20: 22.2koz) reflecting lower mined grades at the NLGM operation (4.5g/t v 5.3g/t).
Operations remain on course for the FY20 guidance reiterated at 80-85koz and $830-880/oz in AISCs.
Expansion of the NLGM mill incorporating a 10tph pilot plant previously purchases in 2016 for the Singida Project is expected to be completed in January 2021 ($1.2m capex).
Capacity will grow to 783ktpa, up from current 695ktpa, allowing the Company to reduce the cut off grade at the NLGM and expand resources/reserves.
Grid power connected towards the end of 2019 contributed 14% of NLGM power requirements so far this year that should increase to 37% in 2021 further reducing unit operating costs.
C1 and AISC unit costs averaged $587/oz and $883/oz during the quarter (Q2/20: $512/oz and $771/oz).
Realised gold price was $1,524/oz v the average spot price of $1,912/oz reflecting the settlement of 12koz in forward gold sales.
The Company had 15koz of outstanding forward sales ($1,251/oz) as of Q3/20 with 12koz closed out post period end and the Company on course to be hedge free by January 2021.
Outstanding VAT receivable stood at $25.5m, up from $23.2m in Q2/20, with the balance subject to verification audit by the Tanzanian Revenue Authority for further corporate tax offsets.
Net debt stood at $5.1m (Q2/20: net cash $2.1m) after accounting for a $7.8m cash payment for the West Kenya acquisition.
The Company completed the acquisition of the West Kenya high grade project and launched construction works at the Singida (first gold pour targeted for 2022) potentially growing portfolio wide production to +220kozpa.
Conclusion: Quarterly operations update highlight robust production at the NLGM with the Company reiterating FY20 production and costs’ guidance. Additionally, the team completed the acquisition of the West Kenya Project and launched construction at Singida with the view to organically grow production to +220kozpa, while continuing with exploration works at the NLGM to extend its life of mine. Forward gold sales account to be closed out in coming months allowing the Company to secure full exposure to strong gold prices from January/21.
SolGold* (LON:SOLG) 38p, Mkt Cap GBP779m – Progress report on second hole at Porvenir
Solgold reports that its second drill-hole at its wholly owned Porvenir prospect in southern Ecuador is currently at a depth of 273.7m having intersected 258.2m of visible chalcopyrite mineralisation from a depth of 15.5m.
The hole (PDH-20-002) is testing the eastern part of a 1700m x 1000m wide mineralised corridor at Cacharposa Creek and is targeted to at least 750m depth. The hole is being drilled from the same collar location as the first hole, which intersected 893m of visible mineralisation, and at a steeper angle of 750 in order to “more fully transect the interpreted core of the Cacharposa porphyry system”.
Solgold has been sufficiently encouraged by the early results at Cacharposa to expand its planned drilling programme from an initial 8,000m programme to 50,000m and plans to have a second drill rig on-site later this month at a location approximately 200m west-northwest of PDH-20-01 in order to “test the central and western portions of the system including the potential root of the core of the system, which may extend deeper than 1000m as indicated by 3D geochemical modelling”.
“The Cacharposa target is characterised by coincident Cu, Mo, Au and Cu:Zn soil anomalies that lie central to a magnetic high and zone of Mn-depletion in soil” and Managing Director, Nick Mather, explained that “mineral zonation and close correlation between chalcopyrite and magnetite is giving us a lot of confidence in the model and our drillhole target strategy at Porvenir. More broadly, across SolGold’s 14 exploration Targets in Ecuador, its increasingly obvious that the gross controls to orebody emplacement in the Ecuadorean sector of the Andean Copper Belt replicate”.
Mr. Mather went on to explain that “SolGold’s blueprint is rapidly refining in its application to our social, environmental, regulatory, and operating processes and SolGold’s geological understanding. The cost and time savings and efficiencies SolGold will enjoy as we replicate discoveries are immense”.
Although assay results are not yet available from either hole PDH 20-001 or 002, photographs included with the announcement https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/4495C_1-2020-10-19.pdf show chalcopyrite disseminated and vein mineralisation within the drill core from PDH-20-002.
Conclusion: After intersecting almost 900m of visual mineralisation in its first hole at Cacharposa Creek Solgold’s second hole has penetrated 258m of similar visual mineralisation so far with around another 380m of drilling to reach its planned target depth of 750m. Although assays are still awaited to confirm the grades, the initial success of the Porvenir exploration vindicates the Solgold exploration model which was honed during the discovery and evaluation of the Alpala deposit in northern Ecuador and gives Solgold a deep insight into the geological controls of mineralisation and into the effective exploration management of its Ecuadorean project portfolio. We look forward to the initial assay results from Porvenir.
*SP Angel act as financial advisor and broker to SolGold
Talga Resources* (ASX:TLG) – A$0.90, Mkt cap GBP239m – Talga appoint new Group COO and European CEO to be based in the UK and Sweden
Talga Resources report the appointment of a new CEO for their European Operations and COO for the group based in the UK and Sweden.
Martin Phillips was formerly responsible for business growth, development strategies and M&A at Iluka, the world’s leading titanium mineral sands company.
Phillip’s previous roles included engineering and management in battery recycling programs and smelting innovations at MIM’s Mt Isa and UK operations.
Talga shares continue to attract new attention on the back of substantial reported interest in Talga’s Talnode(R)-C and Talnode -Si anode technology and future production.
*SP Angel have previously acted for Talga Resources
Analysts
John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –[email protected] – 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – [email protected] – 0203 470 0486
Sales
Richard Parlons –[email protected] – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – [email protected] – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – [email protected] – 0203 470 0535
SP Angel
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street London
W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
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