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23 October 2020
Video commentary for October 22nd 2020
Eoin Treacy’s view
Some of the topics discussed include: cryptocurrencies extend breakout, Bonds yields continue to climb, Dollar steadies, Renminbi susceptible to consolidation, US fiscal deal appears to be closer, continued evidence ot rotation into recovery candidates.
Grains Have ‘Immediate Upside’ Says Goldman Sachs
This note from Dow Jones may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
A report from Goldman Sachs says that the commodity sector is likely on its way up in 2021 due to inflation. However, while grains futures have been traveling higher, momentum is likely to slow down for agriculture in general, the report says — pointing to energy and metals as more likely areas of growth. “Goldman Sachs analysts acknowledged that the non-energy commodities have ‘immediate upside’ potential due to the strong Chinese demand and weather driven risks, but they see that momentum fizzling in 2021,” says Arlan Suderman of StoneX. Corn futures on the CBOT are up 0.7% Thursday, while soybeans are up 0.4%. Meanwhile, wheat is down 0.8%.
Eoin Treacy’s view
Drought risk, the transition to a La Nina weather system and restocking following the panic buying during the initial lockdowns, all represent tailwinds for the soft commodity sector.
Another way of looking at the base formation completions in the sector is commodities are beginning to react to the weakness of the Dollar and risk of inflation in a predictable manner. There is clear potential that commodities are acting as a lead indicator for future inflation.
Compton Launches Largest Universal Basic Income Program In The Nation
This article from CBS news may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Compton, with a population of 95,000, has upwards of 1 in 5 residents living in poverty, double the nationwide average, city officials said. Local housing assistance in the city is at capacity, and 46% of its residents are renters. Since the outset of the pandemic, city officials say its unemployment rates have skyrocketed to 21.9%, and a growing segment of its population are relying on food pantries.
“People in our community are going through tough times, and I know that guaranteed income could give people a moment to navigate their situation, and have some breathing room to go back to school, explore a new career path, spend time with their children, or improve their mental and emotional wellbeing.”
A number of cities across the country are expressing more willingness to consider universal basic income, and the concept was the basis of tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang’s presidential run. The California city of Stockton launched their program last year, and Los Angeles and Long Beach exploring their own pilot programs.
Eoin Treacy’s view
Many people associate Compton with movies like Boys from the Hood or Straight Out of Compton which highlighted the city’s gang culture. Today 70% of the population is Latino and many of those people are illegal immigrants.
The Race to Hydrogen Goes Beyond Brexit With Italy-U.K. Deal
This article by Chiara Albanese and Alberto Brambilla for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Italy’s Snam SpA will brush aside Brexit and invest 33 million euros ($39 million) in ITM Power PLC, which produces electrolyzers, a crucial component in the hydrogen technology.
The investment is part of a 150-million pound ($197 million) capital increase by ITM. The accord is part of Snam’s expansion in the technology after the European Union put hydrogen at the heart of its measures to cut greenhouse gases and become climate neutral by 2050. Hydrogen, if made with renewables, could replace coal, oil, and eventually natural gas, and help eliminate about a third of emissions from industries like steel and cement by mid-century, according to BloombergNEF.
“The hydrogen sector is like the internet before the dot com boom,” Marco Alvera, chief executive officer of Snam, said in an interview. “What matters now is to unlock potential technology and to find the right positioning.”
Eoin Treacy’s view
The EU is going to spend €2 trillion on a green new deal. China is at least talking about going carbon neutral within the next thirty years. That’s a lot of money chasing an energy transition.
Eoin’s personal portfolio – new trading position opened October 21st
Eoin Treacy’s view
One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.
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