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Precious Metals: Easy come’s “But for how long will easy stay”


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13 January 2021

Video commentary for January 12th 2021

Eoin Treacy’s view

A link to today’s video commentary is posted in the Subscriber’s Area.

Email of the day on California, governance and manias

Happy New Year and, as always very much enjoy your nightly newsletter. That said, very sorry to hear in Governance about your experience (I assume it was yours-maybe a contributor?) w BLM door knocking and your wife’s apprehension. I am also in LA, for 35 years now and, in years past, my friends from across the pond only moved back when they couldn’t take earthquakes or fires. We are also thinking of a move, after hearing friends talk about arming themselves at home because of police defunding, the state’s inability to stop spending and taxing, etc. A sad state of a once great state. Be well

Eoin Treacy’s view

Thank you for this email and I am one of the people who has recently armed himself. For me it’s the trend. Fires and earthquakes are a nuisance but don’t phase us. People are a different matter.

When we arrived in 2013 the city was quite different, at least to my eyes. Vagrancy and public indecency among the homeless have been a long running problem. However, in 2017 the City was barred from seizing and destroying the belongings of homeless people that are found on the street.

After that, the number of homeless exploded on the West side. Google’s campus in Venice is surrounded by a large homeless encampment. They are building another one less than half a mile from my home which is due to open in the next 18 months. There is no one size fits all symptom for homelessness but the majority of people on the streets are not from California. The state has been a magnet for people trying to make it big for generations and the weather makes it so living on the street is possible.

In 2014 theft of anything less than $950 was made a misdemeanour. It has been a bonanza for thieves. Criminality has become big business and the lockdown riots were like all their Christmases came at once. On my block four cars have had their wheels stolen in the last eighteen months. There is very little the police can do. Videos are popping up everywhere of shoplifting from all kinds of stores. Here are two recent ones. (Cheviot Hills and Rodeo Drive) The shoplifting ordinance was upheld by popular vote in the recent election so there is no end in sight to this trend.

Precious Metals: Easy come’s “But for how long will easy stay”

Thanks to a subscriber for this report from RBC which may be of interest. Here is a section:

Eoin Treacy’s view

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber’s Area.

Most major miners are now very reluctant to embark on ambitious exploration and development programs. They have been punished by the markets for doing so for over the decade and are often described as capital destroyers. Instead, they have concentrated on M&A activity, where they have security of production already underway and at least partial visibility about the extent of the resource base.

Why Israel Was the Perfect Test Case for Vaccines

This article by Zef Chafets for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

All Israelis are insured by one of four national health maintenance organizations (HMOs), whose clinics and hospitals are spread throughout the country. They are competitive, but the price of membership, co-payments and treatments are regulated and uniform. So is the subsidized “basket” of medication, procedures and treatments. These are decided by a national board of experts. Medication is bought by the government and centrally distributed via a single company. All medical records are online, available to hospitals, doctors and the Ministry of Health.

This makes Israel especially attractive to Pfizer and other vaccine producers. HMOs know who has been vaccinated and in what order of priority. They know who has returned for a booster shot and who has opted out. Israel knows the ages, medical conditions and other demographic information of a heterogeneous population. And all this data is held by the Ministry of Health. It is a treasure for testing efficacy of the vaccine among various groups and the relative amount of vaccine needed for efficacy. Israel will be likely to be the first country to know the level of coverage needed to achieve herd immunity.

Distribution has been a model of efficiency. Vaccinations happen seven days a week in most places and even late at night. While it is a civilian operation, the army is vaccinating its own soldiers and helping with tracking and tracing infection and some logistics.

Israel’s government has left people guessing about the number of vaccines it has received, what it has paid for them or what supply is coming. We know that 2 million people have received a dose of the Pfizer vaccine and will receive their second dose starting this week. According to Netanyahu, an unspecified “millions more” are in the pipeline. Last week, Moderna, whose chief medical officer is an Israeli, sent an initial shipment of 100,000 doses. Israel is also working on a homemade vaccine that could be ready by the summer.

Eoin Treacy’s view

Israel, with a small population and abundant supplies of vaccines, is reaping the benefits of being a first mover. Its economy will be among the first to recover from the pandemic. That puts it in the company of a relatively small number of Asian countries which have come through the pandemic with little in the way of economic hardship.

Eoin’s personal portfolio – stop triggered on hedge position

Eoin Treacy’s view

One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.

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