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Comments of the Day
09 December 2020
Video commentary for December 8th 2020
Eoin Treacy’s view
A link to today’s video commentary is posted in the Subscriber’s Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: gold/bitcoin ratio, high yield spreads continue to contract, ASEAN and Asian currencies continue to recover, discussion of supply/demand and market cap charts
ASEAN Macro
Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Maybank which may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Eoin Treacy’s view
A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber’s Area.
Europe and North America are more likely to receive ready access to vaccines developed by western companies in the short term. Meanwhile China is already exporting its vaccine candidate despite the apparent lack of rigour in testing. The first batches of Sinovac’s vaccine arrived in Indonesia today. It remains very likely that within six months there will be a significant oversupply of vaccines. I fully expect the rollout to go much faster than many people expect.
Email of the day on share dilution
Thanks, Eoin, for your considered response. The point I was trying to get at though is that looking at a stock price chart only can hide all manner of sins. If the share count has doubled, all else equal, the price per share should only be worth half what it was previously. Having said that, I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised if the Robinhood crowd bid up these names as they search for the last remaining recovery names without due consideration for all of the facts. Though in the short-term markets can be a voting machine, in the long term they are a weighing machine, and ultimately these investors will be found out.
Eoin Treacy’s view
Thank you for coming back on this topic. The most basic principle of price setting is to find the balance point between supply and demand. Supply is a present real-world statistic and demand is always going to be about what the future holds. Therefore, the price reflects both what is known and what is expected about any given instrument.
Email of the day on government overreach
please just continuing stating what you believe is obvious.
For me this means that in absolute terms and relative to other causes of illness (on a world-wide basis, COVID 19 is only about number 11 of official causes of death) as well as the average age of people dying WITH – NOT necessarily because of COVID-19 but helpful to inflate the otherwise very lowly death statistics -, the “pandemic” is more a matter of a carefully manipulated narrative leading to generalized and well-utilized hysteria which then justifies measures curtailing freedom and dignity of humans and is finally propelling us into a fully “Perfect World” (foreseen by Huxley + Orwell) including Ministries of Truth and other goodies around the globe.
As I almost died of a seriously complicated pneumonia last year involving, among others, various standard Corona viruses, I do have a certain personal perspective on these matters.
Eoin Treacy’s view
Thank you for sharing your personal perspective and congratulations on your recovery. Anyone with any kind of historical sensitivity is likely to share your awareness of the power grab that has taken place this year.
Email of the day – on mental health
Regarding your comments on the mail about fake news: I would like to point out that your very sound and accurate analysis of the situation this year has helped me tremendously with my investments AND it has helped my mental health a lot. For both of these I am most grateful for your services. please do keep up the good work.
Eoin Treacy’s view
Thank you for your kind words. Mental health is a topic that is personal to all of us but tends to be sensationalised when it is made public. Personally, I have gone through multiple stages of surprise, hope and anger over the last year. That has been as much a reaction to the market as to the ineptitude of the official response in most countries. Many years in the financial business have conditioned me to equate despair in others as a buying opportunity. Despair in myself is usually a sign my position is too large and by opinion was incorrect.
Eoin’s personal portfolio – trading and investment positions increased December 1st
Eoin Treacy’s view
One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.
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