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Comments of the Day
22 January 2021
Video commentary for January 21st 2021
Eoin Treacy’s view
A link to today’s video commentary is posted in the Subscriber’s Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: bitcoin and ethereum correction, stock markets firm and increasing evidence of bases being completed around the world, bonds remain a risk for buyers,
Bitcoin Losses Gather Pace, With Prices Nearing Three-Week Low
This article by Anchalee Worrachate and Eric Lam for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
“Bitcoin has already achieved the fastest-ever price appreciation of any must-have asset,” wrote JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists John Normand and Federico Manicardi in a report on Thursday. “Current prices are so far above production costs that mean-reversion lower in returns is a recurring concern.”
Bitcoin was down 10% to $31,532 as of 10:08 a.m. in New York. Prices are on track for their first back-to-back weekly decline since early October.
Adding to the anxiety, a report in a trade blog suggested that there had been what’s known as a double purchase, where the same “coin” is used in two separate transactions.
“This really will chill a lot of that relentless buying and belief that Bitcoin is a stable form of providing transactions” if a double-spend actually happened, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.
Eoin Treacy’s view
Talk of a double purchase went wild on social media overnight. The primary issue is that bitcoin is designed to ensure that is impossible. Bitcoin processing is slow because it is designed to ensure that a bitcoin cannot be used to make a transaction twice. People try all the time to make double purchases but in order for a transaction to be considered “secure” it needs to go through six blocks. Therefore, I believe it is unlikely that bitcoin has been hacked or that a double purchase has taken place. However, the whole issue does highlight the difficulty bitcoin has in scaling the number of transactions. It is the primary argument against it being a medium of exchange for everyday purchases.
WHO Information Notice for IVD Users 2020/05
This information notice from the WHO may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.
WHO reminds IVD users that disease prevalence alters the predictive value of test results; as disease prevalence decreases, the risk of false positive increases (2). This means that the probability that a person who has a positive result (SARS-CoV-2 detected) is truly infected with SARS-CoV-2 decreases as prevalence decreases, irrespective of the claimed specificity.
Most PCR assays are indicated as an aid for diagnosis, therefore, health care providers must consider any result in combination with timing of sampling, specimen type, assay specifics, clinical observations, patient history, confirmed status of any contacts, and epidemiological information.
Eoin Treacy’s view
The use of PCR testing has been criticised by many commentators as inappropriate for almost as long as the tests have been in use. The reality is that high numbers of cycles tend to give false positives. These tests also have no capacity to differentiate between active and inactive virus. It means that asymptomatic people are forced to quarantine when there is virtually no risk of them being infectious. That is equally true of the more transmissible versions of the virus currently spreading.
Australian Resources
Eoin Treacy’s view
The S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index is back testing its peak from 2008 and now occupies about 20% of the broader index; second only to the banking sector. Of course, that is in nominal terms. On a constant currency basis, the Index is well shy of the 2008 and 2011 peaks.
That’s a common feature for resources indices around the world. The commodity crash took a heavy toll on the metal and currency values which compounded the effect of the declines on portfolios.
The opposite is now true. As the Dollar trends lower it burnishes returns for investors in currencies other than the Dollar.
Eoin’s personal portfolio – stop triggered on hedge position
Eoin Treacy’s view
One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.
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